A very interesting article caught my eye today. Titled "The Vista Myth: Why Windows 7 Won’t Turn Microsoft Around", it details the reasons why Microsoft's peak may have passed during the XP era.

I agree with many of the points that Daniel Eran Dilger is making, in particular, that Microsoft has grown so used to their position as industry leaders, that they've come to believe their own marketing hype, instead of listening to what the consumer wants.

Take Microsoft's recent browser campaign "Windows Internet Explorer 8: Get the facts", comparing Firefox, Chrome and IE on a simple check-list, that somehow managed to find that IE was the equal or superior of it's rivals, despite the fact that it's easy to prove the opposite. Or the new ribbon menu bar in Microsoft Word that has drawn unending complaints from so many long time Word users, but there's no way to turn it off. And then there's the GPL driver debacle, with Microsoft refusing to admit fault and move on, keeping the story alive by claiming that releasing the code somehow negates the infringement.

These may be just a few examples of Microsoft's divergence from reality, but when you tie it to major miscalculations like Vista, as discussed in the article that inspired this post, and the billions wasted squeezing Sony out of the console market, only to see Nintendo waltz past and claim the prize, then it certainly starts to look like a trend.

Microsoft has had precious few successes since Windows XP. With their recent decline in profits while their competitors' fortunes are on the rise, I have to wonder how much longer they can continue to operate like this, before it takes it's toll.